India's April oil product demand was up 510,000 b/d or 11.4% year on year, which is higher than our growth forecast by 200,000 b/d mainly because retail fuel prices had not been raised as quickly as anticipated. In fact, gasoline prices have been left unchanged for more than a month by oil marketing companies. On a year-on-year basis, demand growth was driven by gasoil, gasoline and other minor products, which were up 120,000 b/d, 117,000 b/d and 274,000 b/d, respectively. Kerosene/jet fuel and LPG also posted decent positive growth, up by 25,000 b/d and 20,000 b/d, respectively. But growth was partially offset by naphtha, which fell 50,000 b/d, with fuel oil demand remaining steady.
India’s retail fuel prices were raised in small tranches until April 6 after the recent elections, but have since stayed constant. The oil marketing companies have been incurring losses due to a freeze in price hikes as international crude prices rose to record levels following the Russia-Ukraine war. Although the hikes have frozen, retail prices are still high and are responsible for high inflation. The consumer price index stood at a 17-month high of 6.95% in March. In the near term, we expect India’s oil demand to remain robust unless fuel prices are raised sharply. Further ahead, India’s H2 oil demand is expected to be around 200,000 b/d higher than H1, driven by a more broad-based pickup in economic activity as the country adapts to live with COVID-19 amid higher vaccination rates.
Overall, India’s oil demand is expected to grow by 245,000 b/d in 2022, revised up by about 20,000 b/d from our prior outlook due to better than expected demand, with growth easing to 195,000 b/d in 2023. Gasoil demand is set to improve as manufacturing activity regains momentum and jet fuel use improves as international flights start to pick up steam, though they are likely to remain well-below capacity. Middle distillates (gasoil and kerosene/jet fuel combined) will account for more than half of 2022 growth, partly due to a slow recovery last year. But there are still risks of downward adjustments as the Russian-Ukraine conflict continues to evolve and the worry of a global or regional economic recession has been growing.
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