S&P Global Commodity Insights: India hopes early return of Iranian, Venezuelan crude to soften price blow:

Press release

02-04-2022

India is feeling the pinch from sky-high crude prices, but refiners are resting their hopes for an early return of Venezuelan and Iranian oil to ease the situation instead of aggressively turning to discounted Russian crudes, which many refiners are not used to processing in a larger scale.
OPEC and its allies approved another modest oil production increase March 31, saying it saw no need to respond to oil disruptions from the Ukraine war being waged by key member Russia. The OPEC+ agreement called on the 23-country producer alliance to boost output by 432,000 b/d in May.
That is a slight increase from the previous monthly increases of 400,000 b/d, but short of what analysts at S&P Global Commodity Insights forecast for Russian crude shut-ins of 2.8 million b/d from late April through to the end of 2022.
Persistent high oil prices will likely intensify inflationary pressure and dampen fragile demand recovery in India, particularly as retail fuel prices have been raised almost daily since March 22 soon after the state elections," Lim Jit Yang, advisor for Asia-Pacific oil markets at S&P Global. Before the recent hikes, retail fuel prices had been almost the same for four months since November 2021 after the government announced an excise cut for petrol and diesel prices. Crude oil prices have risen by almost 60%-70% since then, pressurizing margins for oil marketing companies and more hikes on retail prices are likely to follow, which will increasingly become a headwind for demand recovery, he added.

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