Asian refiners have continued to call for OPEC+ to raise supply by at least 800,000 b/d. The group's decision to increase output by 400,000 b/d for March may not ease tight supplies and cool overheated prices in the region, according to a S&P Global Platts survey of analysts
"Asian consumers would welcome OPEC+ decision to continue to raise production, especially now with oil prices hovering close to $90/b," said Lim Jit Yang, advisor for oil markets at S&P Global Platts Analytics. "But the actual increase will likely again fall below the 400,000 b/d target, as most OPEC+ members outside of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE appear to be reaching capacity constraints."
OPEC and its allies Feb. 2 reaffirmed that they would not provide additional supplies beyond the previously agreed 400,000 b/d monthly.
Oil prices hit a seven-year high end-January. ICE April Brent futures contract was down 43 cents/b from the previous close at $89.04/b in early Asian trading Feb. 3, while the NYMEX March light sweet crude contract fell 60 cents/b to $87.66/b.
OPEC+ group's decision comes amid a much tighter physical oil market, with inventories shrinking and the Brent crude complex in its steepest backwardation on record, nearing $3/b between February and March contracts, according to Platts data.
S&P Global Platts Analytics expects the impact of omicron coronavirus variant on Asian oil demand to be relatively less severe compared with the delta strain, with many countries still moving toward reopening economies, due to higher vaccination rates.
Asian oil demand is expected to grow by 1.5 million b/d year on year in 2022, from 1.2 million b/d in 2021, with the region depending heavily on crude imports, Platts Analytics said.
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