India's gasoline demand will likely continue to recover this year on improving economic activity, but the upside is expected to be partially offset by the continued threat of COVID-19 infections in the country, which has already been inflicted by a third wave recently due to the omicron variant.
The number of cases reported in the country has declined, government-run Press Information Bureau said on its Twitter account Feb. 3. As of Feb. 3, there were about 1.53 million active cases, it said, adding that India reported a peak of 347,254 cases Jan. 21, which is less than the previous peak of 414,188.
"India's gasoline demand had already recovered back to above 2019's levels last year," JY Lim, advisor oil markets at S&P Global Platts Analytics, said Feb. 3. "The resurgence of COVID-19 in the country is expected to slow demand in Q1, but we still see growth for the whole of 2022 as the situation starts to improve. In fact, mobility seems to be picking up again in the latter part of January as daily infections started to ease," Lim said. Platts Analytics expects India's gasoline demand to grow about 5% in 2022 after rising 12% in 2021, he said.
In December, state-run refineries recorded a 103% run rate compared with 100% in December 2020 and 107% in November 2021. Meanwhile, India's gasoline exports rose 32.80% on the month to a more-than-two-year high of 1.374 million mt in December 2021, showed PPAC data released in the week started Jan. 30. The country's gasoline exports were last higher at 1.377 million mt in May 2019, the data showed.
Reflecting the firmer sentiment, the front-month FOB Singapore 92 RON gasoline crack against Brent swaps widened to $13.67/b at the close of Asian trade Feb. 3, up 14.68% from the $11.92/b assessed at the Asian close Jan. 31, S&P Global Platts data showed.
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