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S&P Global Platts Analytics: Asia's oil demand revival seen resilient, OPEC+ response key

S&P Global Platts Analytics: Asia's oil demand revival seen resilient, OPEC+ response key

Asia's oil demand may finally be on a sustained upward trend after a long period of uneven growth, with consumption in China and India looking increasingly resilient, but how OPEC+ members plan their supply response will be crucial in supporting this recovery.

According to Platts Analytics, Asian oil demand is projected to rise by 1.7 million b/d in 2022 and reach 103% of pre-pandemic levels, up from the 1.2 million b/d growth seen in 2021, although the full impact of the omicron variant of the coronavirus is still being assessed. Growth will be driven by middle distillate demand, which is expected to rise by 1.0 million b/d in 2022.

"Apart from China with zero-COVID policy, most countries in the region are moving toward re-opening of economies despite seeing a rise in omicron cases. Any lockdowns are likely to be localized and more targeted, with less impact on oil demand than in the past," said Lim Jit Yang, advisor for Asia-Pacific oil markets at Platts Analytics.

Affirming a 400,000 b/d output increase for February on Jan. 4, the OPEC+ alliance signaled continued confidence that the omicron variant will have a smaller impact on global oil demand than previously assumed. Crude prices have so far proved resilient, hovering above $80/b.

India's crude imports in November reversed a declining trend to hit its highest level in 10 months as refiners built inventories in anticipation of higher runs. The country imported 18.37 million mt, or 4.5 million b/d, of crude in November, up 7.5% month on month, the latest provisional data from the country's Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell showed.

"China and India will resume their front-line status as the engines of growth in 2022, but Southeast Asia will also contribute substantially, especially in countries with high vaccination rates," Platts Analytics said.

 

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