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“The policy was well balanced with the focus remaining on removal of accommodation. The 25bps hike was not associated with any change in the stance. The RBI remains focused on core inflation and clearly highlights that the recent softening of inflation was mostly due to the strong seasonal deflation in vegetables, and this might go away in the summer months. The estimates for average inflation is at 5.3% for FY24, still higher than the 4% aspirational target of the RBI. At the current repo rate of 6.5% and last inflation print of 5.7%, the real policy rate has moved to 0.8%. However, the governor indicated that adjusted for inflation, the policy rate is still lower than the pre-pandemic levels. Growth dynamics are seen to be relatively stable and this may also indicate a lower dis-inflationary pressure in the economy, hence calling for any credible central bank of the EME to remain hawk-eyed. Inflection points are always difficult to call, but I think that the rate hiking cycle of the RBI may yet not be over. We remain open to another 25bps increase in the repo rate in April or even later and will critically depend on the inflation prints in the months ahead. For record, our model suggests that the next CPI print can surprise on the higher side to 6.2-6.4%, as food prices are seen to have largely normalized based on data obtained from the Department of Consumer Affairs.”
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