ü This Budget would have the daunting task of progressing towards consolidation after the covid related fiscal push. On the other hand, an eye needs to be kept on the economic growth in an atmosphere of slowing global growth and tightening domestic financial conditions.
ü On a strategic level, the broad reforms process should continue with outlays earmarked for rural development, boosting manufacturing, employment generation, and capacity building through infrastructure.
ü Despite this being the last Budget before general elections, we do not anticipate much in terms of tax dole outs for the masses.
ü For FY24E we anticipate the Budget deficit to increase to INR 17.8 tn, GFD/GDP to print at 5.9% (after attaining the 6.4% target for FY23BE).
ü Net and gross borrowings are likely to increase in FY24E to INR 11.7 tn and 15.4 tn respectively.
ü Despite RBI pausing after another 25bps hike in February 2023, we see a scope for yields to rise in H1FY24 towards 7.60-7.75% as centre targets to front-load borrowings in H1.
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