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Aam Aadmi Party’s entry into the poll fray is likely to benefit BJP as the incumbent government is projected to win landslide victory in Gujarat and a comfortable win in Himachal Pradesh
New Delhi, October 2nd, 2022: According to the ABP News-CVoter (Centre for Voting Opinion & Trends in Election Research) opinion poll, the ruling BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party) is predicted to win the elections for a record seventh time since 1995, in Gujarat. The BJP is anticipated to win between 135-143 seats, which would represent a significant gain from its 2017 total tally of 99 seats. However, as a result of a strong challenge posed by AAP (Aam Aadmi Party) as a strong third force, the vote shares of the BJP and INC (Indian National Congress) is likely to drop below 2017 levels. According to projections, the BJP will receive 46.8% (down from 49.1% in 2017) of vote share, followed by the INC with 32.3% (down from 41.4% in 2017), and AAP is likely to garner a sizeable vote share of 17.4%. Accordingly, INC is likely to win 36-44 seats. It is predicted that AAP would win 0–2 seats. Others are likely to receive a vote share of 3.5% and win 0–3 seats.
Additionally, ABP News-CVoter conducted a tracker in October and one of the questions posed to the voters was their preferred choice for the Chief Minister’s post. In response to the question 34.6% respondents favoured Bhupdender Bhai Patel (BJP), 15.6% favoured an AAP’s candidate, 9.2% favoured Vijay Rupani (BJP), 5.0% favoured Nitin Bhai Patel (BJP), 4.9% favoured Shakti Singh Gohil (Congress), 4.0% Bharat Sinh Solanki (Congress), 3.7% favoured C R Patil (BJP), 2.9% favoured Hardik Patel and 2.8% favoured Arjun Modwadia (Congress) as their choice for the CM’s post.
Himachal Pradesh
In Himachal Pradesh ABP News-CVoter opinion poll predicts a comfortable victory for the BJP in the upcoming assembly elections. While the party's vote share may decline from its 2017 levels of 48.8% to 45.2%, they are projected to win between 37–45 seats and return to power, beating the anti-incumbency. The vote share of INC is likely to fall from 41.7% in 2017 to 33.9% in 2022, and it is expected have a tally of 21–29 seats. AAP's much-hyped election campaign in Himachal is not expected to make any substantial gains as the party is only expected to win 0-1 seats. However, they are likely to garner a sizable chunk of 9.5% of votes, while others are expected to win 0-3 seats and receive a vote share of 11.4%.
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