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Backed by resilient domestic growth dynamics, the RBI clearly has tended to follow the aggressive global monetary policy hiking cycle with a 3rd dose of 50 bps increase. The negative spillovers from the monetary policy cycle of the AEs in a highly integrated global financial system probably remains a bother for the RBI. The consequence of the sharp rate hikes in the US is manifesting in a weaker interest rate differential between India and the US, and this is likely to have a negative implication of global flows into India. Further, the depreciation in the INR is also putting a spoke in the RBI’s fight against inflation in India. Unlike the AEs, the RBI stopped short of providing any forward guidance to its own monetary policy as it feels that this could be risky for an emerging market country like India. Our view is that the RBI is standing ready to deepen and elongate its rate hiking cycle consequent to the global dynamics of policy rates. We believe that the RBI would be open to push the repo rate to 6.50% levels by February 2023, implying two more hikes – in December by 35bps and in February by 25bps.
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