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ü From the August policy meeting to the 30th September policy, the incremental news flows are not heartening. Domestic inflation print for September was at 7.0% while the GDP growth for Q1FY23 was lower than market consensus.
ü Central banks across the world, led by US Fed upped their hawkish tone and are now ready for a larger growth sacrifice in their efforts at containing inflation.
ü Subsequently, INR depreciated sharply and with the interest rate differential between India and the US falling to a 12 year low of ~340bps, capital flows are unlikely to be supportive.
ü Inflation pressures for India could sustain with INR depreciation and also due to a relatively weak Kharif season.
ü We now expect the RBI to hike the repo rate by 50bps on 30th September and continue raising for the next two policies for a terminal rate of 6.50% by end-March 2023.
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