India to surpass China as world’s largest importer of thermal coal as China drives for self-sufficiency. Global coal demand is expected to increase again in 2022 as developing markets, China and India in particular, will need additional energy supply from coal to meet incremental energy demand growth. Despite higher domestic consumption, China’s thermal coal imports are expected to decline in 2022, as domestic production will increase by an even larger extent, as policymakers press for more self-sufficiency. At the same time, the import constraints India encountered in 2021, such as record high coal prices and freight rates, will be less severe in 2022, allowing imports to increase strongly to meet higher domestic demand and rebuild depleted stockpiles.
Jennifer Van Dinter, head of integrated analytics, S&P Global Platts, said: “Energy markets have been on perhaps the biggest rollercoaster ride in history over the past two years, seeing both negative prices and record prices. As we enter 2022, most commodity markets remain tight, as supply has struggled to match the rebound in demand during 2021, resulting in a drawdown of inventories and much stronger pricing.”
Dan Klein, Head of Energy Pathways, Analytics, S&P Global Platts, said: “2021 was a clear example that recalibrating from such disruptive events like COVID-19 are often multi-year exercises. While recalibration will continue in 2022, it is likely that not all energy markets will be back to normal by the end of the year, particularly as the needs of the energy transition will require further disruption to business as usual.”
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