S&P Global Platts Analytics: COVID-19 omicron leaves Asian jet fuel recovery dangling

Press Release

08-12-2021

The new COVID-19 variant omicron has unleashed greater uncertainty for air travel as many Asian countries unfurl new rules and movement checks to stem the spread of the virus, dashing hopes of any sustained near-term recovery in jet fuel demand.
India has likely deferred plans to resume regular international flights from Dec. 15, thwarting hopes of a return to normalcy after a long hiatus. The country suspended flights around March 2020 as the pandemic hit many countries worldwide.
A circular by India's Directorate General of Civil Aviation issued on Dec. 1 stated: "In view of the evolving global scenario with the emergence of new variants of concern, the situation is being watched closely". An appropriate decision regarding the effective resumption date of scheduled commercial international passenger flights will be notified in due course, it added.
The impact of omicron, if it spreads wildly, will most likely be felt in H1 2022 as governments in the region tighten measures to contain the spread of the new variant, JY Lim, advisor oil markets at S&P Global Platts Analytics, said. "Currently, we expect Asia-Pacific kerosene/jet fuel demand to grow year on year by 600,000 b/d in 2022, after a sharp contraction of more than 1 million b/d in 2020 and a modest increase of 30,000 b/d anticipated for 2021," Lim said. "Though we are likely to lower our growth outlook for next year, especially in the first half due to travel restrictions, aviation demand is expected to rise as governments generally have a higher degree of tolerance for COVID-19 infections and will look for ways to resume travel activities in a safe manner," Lim added.

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