Macro developments
India’s foreign exchange reserves rose to a lifetime high of US$ 611.9bn in the week ended 9 Jul 2021. Forex reserves rose by US$ 1.9bn this week compared with an increase of US$ 1bn in the previous week. In FYTD22, forex reserves have increased by US$ 32.6bn compared with an accretion of US$ 40.8bn in the same period last year.
US advance retail sales rose more than expected by 0.6% in Jun’21 (est.: 0.3% decline) against 1.7% drop seen in May’21, on MoM basis. Core retail sales also increased by 1.1% (est.: 0.4%) compared with 1.4% fall in May’21. In a separate print, University of Michigan consumer sentiment index dropped to 80.8 in Jul’21 (est.: 86.5) and against 85.5 in Jun’21, dented by higher inflation expectations.
Euro Area’s CPI eased to 1.9% in Jun’21 (YoY) from 2% in May’21 led by drop in prices of energy (12.6% versus 13.1%) and services (0.7% versus 1.1%). On the other hand prices of non-energy industrial goods rose by 1.2% from 0.7% in May’21. Food prices remain stable at 0.9%. Core inflation (excl food, energy, alcohol and tobacco) eased to 0.9% from 1% in May’21.
Markets
Bonds: Except Japan (higher), global yields closed lower. UK’s 10Y yield fell the most by 4bps (0.63%) as daily infections rose for the first time since Jan’21 above 50K. US 10Y yield fell a tad by 1bps (1.29%). Crude prices rose by 0.2% (US$ 74/bbl). India’s 10Y yield rose by 2bps (6.21%) as RBI did not include on-the-run securities in the current G-SAP auction.
Currency: Except INR (flat), other global currencies closed lower against the dollar as rising COVID-19 cases globally dented risk-sentiment. DXY rose by 0.1% as US retail sales were better than expected. GBP fell the most by 0.4%, followed by AUD and CNY both falling by 0.3% each. INR is trading lower today in line with other Asian currencies.
Equity: Global indices ended lower as concerns over highly transmissible delta variant dented investor sentiments. Amongst other indices, Nikkei (1%) declined the most followed by Dow (0.9%) and Shanghai Comp (0.7%). Sensex ended flat. It is trading lower today in line with other Asian stocks.
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